Current observations show La Niña conditions persisting in the equatorial Pacific as of early 2026, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region averaging -0.5°C. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, projecting a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2026 (55% probability) and a 62% chance of El Niño emerging during June-August. The pattern is expected to persist through the end of 2026. The latest ECMWF seasonal ensemble, released in April 2026, shows every member predicting moderate to strong El Niño conditions by mid-June. Roughly half of the 20-plus ensemble members forecast Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.5°C by October, using the 1981-2010 climatology baseline. NOAA currently assigns a 33% probability to a strong El Niño (Niño 3.4 index of +1.5°C or higher) during October-December. A “super El Niño” is an informal classification for events where Niño 3.4 anomalies reach or exceed +2.0°C for at least one th...
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced by President Donald Trump on April 7, has raised immediate questions about who controls one of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes. Trump agreed to suspend planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure contingent on Iran's complete and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that normally sees between 100 and 120 commercial vessels pass through each day, according to data from Kpler.
Iran is now demanding payment for that passage. Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran's Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union, told the Financial Times that ships will be required to pay the equivalent of $1 per barrel of oil on board in cryptocurrency, with empty tankers allowed to pass freely. Vessels must first email Iranian authorities with their cargo manifest and, once assessed, are given a brief window to complete the Bitcoin transaction — a mechanism Hosseini said is designed so payments cannot be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.
The toll system puts Washington and Tehran on an immediate collision course. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the ceasefire requires the strait to be opened without limitation, explicitly including no tolls, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared flatly that "the strait is open." Trump himself sent a murkier signal: when asked by ABC News about Iran's toll plan, he said he was thinking of pursuing it as a "joint venture" with Iran, describing it as "a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people."
The ceasefire showed cracks within hours of being announced. Iranian state news agency Fars reported that oil tanker traffic was halted again after Israel launched strikes on Lebanon — a front that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said was not covered by the agreement. As of Wednesday, overall traffic had not picked up beyond the slow trickle experienced throughout the war, with only bulk carriers, not oil tankers, confirmed to have transited.
Markets reacted sharply to the developments. Oil prices fell as much as 16% following the ceasefire announcement, while U.S. stock futures pointed to gains of more than 2%. Bitcoin climbed above $72,500 as traders reassessed the likelihood of further supply disruptions. The first formal round of negotiations is scheduled to take place in Islamabad, with the U.S. team to be led by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.