Current observations show La Niña conditions persisting in the equatorial Pacific as of early 2026, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region averaging -0.5°C. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, projecting a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2026 (55% probability) and a 62% chance of El Niño emerging during June-August. The pattern is expected to persist through the end of 2026. The latest ECMWF seasonal ensemble, released in April 2026, shows every member predicting moderate to strong El Niño conditions by mid-June. Roughly half of the 20-plus ensemble members forecast Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.5°C by October, using the 1981-2010 climatology baseline. NOAA currently assigns a 33% probability to a strong El Niño (Niño 3.4 index of +1.5°C or higher) during October-December. A “super El Niño” is an informal classification for events where Niño 3.4 anomalies reach or exceed +2.0°C for at least one th...
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The American Letter is an independent news publication founded in April 2026. We exist for one reason: to report on the stories that actually matter, without fear, without favor, and without an agenda.
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